Pavin Smith could be the Diamondbacks answer at first base all along
The former top pick started putting things together at the plate at the end of the 2024 season.
The Diamondbacks have an interesting decision to make with one of their own players, one of them being first baseman Pavin Smith. Smith, a former first round pick in 2017, hadn’t necessarily lived up to his draft pedigree but finished the 2024 season strong. There’s an easy argument to make that he should be on Arizona’s 26-man roster come 2025, but the question remains if the team thinks he’s a solution to either their first base or designated hitter mix.
The upside for Smith is he isn’t arbitration-eligible yet, giving the D-backs a potentially cost-effective option at first base, but the downside is his last option was expended in 2024. Since he’s out of options, Arizona can’t bump him off the active roster without exposing him to waivers. At the same time, this is the first time in his career that he hasn’t had Christian Walker blocking him at first base.
There isn’t much sample size for Smith in 2024, as he only got 158 plate appearances with 108 balls put into play. While his xStats and underlying metrics for the 2024 season look great, a small sample size disclaimer must be attached. However, that’s the only data we have to evaluate.
The first glance from his Baseball Savant page is Smith set career highs in average exit velocity (90.2 MPH), launch angle sweet spot (34.9%), barrel rate (14.7% per BBE), and hard-hit rate (44.0%) in 2024. Since he does not qualify as a hitter, we don’t have percentiles for his performance.
Given his history as an amateur, prospect, and major leaguer, we already know Smith is a very disciplined hitter who can put up solid exit velocity numbers. He chased only 17.9% of the time, a lower rate than Juan Soto, who’s set to become the first full-time position player in MLB history to sign a $600 million contract, and drew walks in 11.4% of his plate appearances. The issue in the past has been getting him to hit the ball in the air, where those exit velocity numbers would translate to more hits and better slugging. 2024 was the first time we saw a significant jump in his slugging, as his ISO jumped to .277, much higher than the .136-.147 range earlier in his career.
By the end of the 2024 season, Smith started forcing himself into the regular lineup. Injuries to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Ketel Marte certainly opened the door, but he made the most of his opportunity down the stretch. From August 19th onward, he .270 with six home runs and a .972 OPS. The Statcast data hints at a potential breakout as well, as all his underlying batted metrics jumped through the roof. His percentage of hard-hit contact jumped to 48.4% and his barrel rate climbed to 20.4% over that stretch. While the sample size was relatively small, with only 90 plate appearances and 54 balls put into play over that stretch, it was the first sign of Smith putting together a strong run at the plate at the major league level.
Because of the small sample size of plate appearances and batted ball events, strong two-and-a-half weeks of play in September likely skewed the data positively. That’s something to take note of when trying to project Smith’s 2025 season and beyond. Steamer projects Smith to put up a .249/.337/.411 slash (108 wRC+) while Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS has him at a .248/.333/.407 (105 OPS+). It’s entirely possible that the projections haven’t accounted for Smith’s power surge to close 2024, but at the same time, they can’t ignore his subpar production from previous seasons either.
For the D-backs, Smith is the baseline for the left-handed half of the platoon at both first base and the designated hitter spots. While it would be good for them to re-sign both Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, they don’t have the budget to make that happen. Instead, they’ll likely have to choose one or the other and hope Smith can fill in at the other spot. The D-backs are still reportedly interested in re-signing Pederson, who will cost significantly less than Walker on the free agent market. Even if Smith starts at one of the two spots, the team will have to get someone who can fill the platoon. Paul Goldschmidt, once the face of the franchise, is one option to complete the platoon.
Relying on Smith to be a major part of their lineup is a risky gamble for the D-backs but you could also make the argument he’s earned that opportunity. If he can be part of the solution at either first base or DH, depending on how the team addresses the two positions this winter, it would be a massive win for the organization.