Josh Naylor could be a one-year stopgap at first base

Naylor makes sense as a rental for first base should they be unable to land a controllable player in the trade market.

The Diamondbacks could be looking at trying to fill the hole of a top-5 first baseman should Christian Walker sign with another club. While they’ll likely earn the No. 27 pick in next year’s draft, it’s hardly a consolation for their cleanup hitter and the 30+ home runs he’s averaged the past three years. Their internal options aren’t necessarily great, as it could come down to re-signing Josh Bell or going with a more extended trial run with former top selection Pavin Smith. Instead, it may be a better option to target a player with just one year of control and buy some time for the farm system to produce a starting caliber first baseman.

One such player who could fill the gap for 2025 would be Josh Naylor. Naylor had a breakthrough 2024 season, hitting a career-high 31 home runs as the Guardians’ everyday first baseman. It would make sense for Cleveland to sell high on him this offseason off his power output while at the same time clearing space for Kyle Manzardo to take over full-time. Naylor isn’t as appealing a trade candidate as Díaz, or the other options mentioned here, due to only having one year of club control.

One thing to note is the defensive fit for Naylor. He’s got a very wide build, listed at 5’11” and 250 lbs., and is somewhat defensively-challenged at first base. Baseball Reference credits him with -6 fielding runs but Statcast has him at +1 fielding runs. Even if he’s not a fit at first base, they could have him be their primary DH and operate with a platoon at first as a secondary option.

While Naylor can be a bit chase-prone, sitting in the 25th percentile for chase rate, he has good strikeout (16.6%) and walk (9.2%) rates for a slugger. His hard-hit rate of 40.9% is higher than the major league average of 36.5%, and he has sat in the 41-43% range in each of the past four seasons. While it’s debatable if he could repeat his 31-homer season, or if that’s the best version of Naylor, there is some legit power in his game that should help replace some of the lost home runs from Walker.

If there is one clear weakness in his game, he is vulnerable to offspeed pitches due to his aggressive tendencies. Naylor crushes fastballs, with a Run Value per 100 pitches (RV/100) of 2.0 and 2.1 the last two seasons. The pitch that has given him the most trouble over the last two years has been the changeup. Over the past two seasons, he has a -7 run value against the pitch, although he improved his ability to slug the pitch in 2024.

The D-backs faced a similar issue at third base the past offseason and solved that by acquiring Eugenio Suárez, who fell out of favor with the Mariners. Suárez rewarded the team’s faith in him, despite falling in a deep slump from mid-April to June, hitting .256 with 30 home runs, 101 RBI, and 3.1 bWAR. Because of the trade and the solid season, the team is comfortable playing him another season at the hot corner for another $13 million, an affordable price for what he provides on a nightly basis.

That could be the solution at first base. Ryan Mountcastle, Nathaniel Lowe, and Triston Casas certainly are appealing longer-term options but Arizona will find some difficulty in matching the price those teams will ask. In the case of Mountcastle, who will likely be moved to clear the way for top prospect Coby Mayo, there will certainly be options for teams that miss out on the Walker sweepstakes, and they may have more appealing trade chips than the D-backs could. General manager Mike Hazen always seems to find a player no one typically expects them to target and it ends up being a great fit. Suárez already fit that bill last offseason, but it’s also worth noting that their best player (Ketel Marte) and pitcher (Zac Gallen) ended up being under-the-radar additions when acquired.

Naylor by himself isn’t worth as much, but the D-backs could get him as part of a package deal if they can leverage their center field depth. It’s easy to point to the fact that the Guardians were 27th in Wins Above Average in CF (-1.3) and point out the D-backs’ surplus of potential starting center fielders. Whether it’s McCarthy or the former top prospect Alek Thomas, they have options. In fact, Thomas may be more intriguing to Cleveland with more upside from his bat although taking the safer profile for McCarthy is also an option. However, that also means Cleveland has to give up more.

Almost any deal involving a center fielder going to Cleveland might as well include the D-backs asking for Lane Thomas. While Thomas’ projected $8.3 million salary is a bit pricey for the role he’d likely play in Arizona, as he’d be fulfilling the Randal Grichuk role as a 4th outfielder and the primary DH against lefties. Thomas has crushed left-handed pitchers in his career, with a .302/.366/.514 slash. Looking at his batted ball metrics, he has been especially tough on them the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2023 season, he has a .302 xBA, .496 xSLG, a .370 xwOBA, hard-hit rate of 42.9%, and a barrel rate of 8.6% per batted ball. While his bottom-line results outpaced that, much of the overperformance came in 2023, but his 2024 results were strong enough to make the case it’s a legit skill.

Another complicating factor is adding Lane Thomas and Naylor would increase Arizona’s payroll by $20 million for less value than just re-signing Christian Walker. In order to minimize the issue of the salary addition, Jordan Montgomery would almost have to be included in the deal to give the D-backs more flexibility to spend in other areas if necessary. In order to get him included, Arizona will have to pay a significant chunk of Montgomery’s $22.5 million salary. While that gives the D-backs some flexibility, it could become problematic if they can’t use that money to get a difference-maker from the free agent market.

Given the complexity of putting together a deal that makes sense for both parties, it’s very unlikely to come together. Naylor is a bit too pricey compared to alternative options the D-backs could put together at first base. The question comes down to if they believe Smith’s late-season power surge is legit or just a few weeks of getting hot. If they believe that’s the case, then they could move to a platoon at first base by targeting Paul Goldschmidt or Justin Turner. Additionally they could look at Bell or even Carlos Santana as unimpressive stopgap options and splurge at the DH spot instead.

Michael McDermott has been writing about the Arizona Diamondbacks, and their minor league system, for 9 seasons for AZ Snake Pit, Diamondbacks on SI, and Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X at x.com/michaelmcdmlb or at Bluesky.