How Dylan Ray's changeup came to be, striking out best friend in Fall League
Since adding it to his repertoire following his draft year, the changeup has become his best swing-and-miss offering against left-handed hitters.
In a previous stack, I wrote about the characteristics of Dylan Ray’s changeup. It has morphed into his best pitch, flashing plus potential due to the big horizontal movement.
He uses a four-seam circle changeup grip, as seen in the photo below.
“I started developing it in the 2022 offseason,” said Ray. “I just needed something that moves away from left-handed hitters. It ended up being a better pitch than I thought it would be.”
As stated in a previous interview, his goal is to impart 4-seam fastball-like spin but sideways. It’s the exact same approach to the changeup as Devin Williams, known for throwing a high-spin changeup that gets a lot of horizontal break. I went into more detail into the numbers in the Diamondbacks Fall League pitcher Statcast dive a couple weeks ago.
Velocity-wise, it’s about a 10 MPH drop compared to his 4-seamer, clocking in at an average velocity of 82.9 MPH compared to 92.8 on the fastball.
LINK: Dylan Ray’s Statcast compilation page
The pitch is still a work in progress, as some of the left-handed hitters have shown the ability to adjust and hit it to the opposite field for hits or crush location mistakes over the heart of the plate. Against lefties, it drew a whiff rate of 41.2% (7 whiffs on 17 swings), although he’ll need to improve the command of the pitch with only 32% of them resulting in a called strike or a whiff.
Facing his best friend for the first time as a pro
Talking to Ray following his first start in the fall league, I asked which batters he looked forward to facing the most in the Arizona Fall League. The first player he mentioned was Mesa outfielder Caden Rose.
The two players have a bond that goes a long way back, dating back to when they were 10 years old. Dylan’s father, Tom, mentioned how the two lived out similar scenarios in the backyard playing whiffle ball.
"He's gotten me plenty of times in the past and probably up in the series against us,” said Ray. "That was one out of many times we've faced each other growing up."
For the next 11 years, the two would become inseparable as they shared their baseball journey through travel ball, high school, and college. They both played at Bob Jones High School in Madison, a suburb just west of Huntsville. That team ended up having six players accept offers to play at SEC schools. Both would take their talents to the University of Alabama, spending two more years together before separating as pros. Ray went to the Diamondbacks in the 4th round of the 2022 draft while Rose would be selected by the Red Sox in the 7th round a year later.
On November 5th the two had the chance to face each other for the first time as professional baseball players. It was the opportunity both players had been looking for as soon as the fall league started. They had been talking about it in their friend group chats.
Ray quickly jumped ahead 0-2 in the count, as he blew a couple of 95 MPH heaters past an amped-up Rose. Rose then laid off the next three pitches to work the count full but got another high fastball blown by him. Ray was smiling on the mound as the at-bat unfolded.
"I'm going to be honest, I was trying to go yard," said Rose. "He gave me the high heaters. I was amped up, I was chasing them. Locked back in, got back to 3-2, but he got the high heater on me again and got me."
“You could tell I was 91-94 MPH on the first couple hitters then I decided to ramp it up a bit,” said Ray. “I was just going to challenge him. If he got it, he got it, whatever happens happens.”
While Rose didn’t go yard off his best friend, he launched a grand slam later in the game, turning a 9-2 laugher into a tight game in which Salt River won 13-11.
Ray finished the game with seven strikeouts in 2 2/3 innings as the pitch count climbed quickly. He threw a fall league high of 64 pitches. Early on in the game, he was averaging 93-95 on the fastball per the radar gun at Sloan Park. However, after his triumphant at-bat over Rose, his velocity dipped into the low-90s and stayed there. He was still getting a lot of swing-and-miss on the 4-seamer in the game.
Full postgame interview with Ray and Rose after the game, conducted by MLB’s Jesse Borek.
Reflecting on Fall League performance and preparing for 2025
Ray has five starts in the Arizona Fall League. Despite throwing north of 250 pitches, he’s only accumulated 13 innings and has a fall league ERA of 7.62. At face value, it comes off as a bad performance statistically but often times growth might not be measured on a stat sheet.
"We all wish to do well statistically," said Ray. "I don't really like to look at the statistics as much, and yes they matter, but I think I've progressed mentally. Just throwing the innings, facing good hitters, and seeing what it takes. It was a fun experience, I enjoyed being out here, and looking forward to getting better this offseason and into next season."
In the October 8 interview, Ray mentioned his main goal was better execution with two strikes. It’s been a mixed bag for the Diamondbacks pitching prospect, as while the strikeout rate has been impressive (29.5%), the efficiency of retiring hitters hasn’t been great.
Ray is unaware of where he’s likely to be assigned when the 2025 season starts. Between Double-A and the fall, he’ll accumulate around 90 innings of competitive pitching for the 2024 season.
"All I can control is to go into the offseason, command the ball better, and execute early in counts. Get hitters out early in the counts, which I haven't done a great job at this fall league. I plan on getting better at that."
That efficiency early in the count will be important for him to stick as a starter. A pitcher who is effective, but requires a lot of pitches per inning is more likely to end up in the bullpen. In such a capacity, he could simplify his arsenal to be just the 4-seamer, slider, and changeup.
Given that he’ll be Rule 5 eligible following the 2025 season, he’ll likely be in Triple-A pretty early and possibly could debut for the D-backs late in the season. He’d likely be on a similar timeline to Cristian Mena and Yilber Diaz were on during the 2024 season. The organization as a whole has a dearth of pitching prospects who profile as starters, which deserves its separate breakdown in the future, so they’ll be banking on Ray developing as a starter.