Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects entering the 2024-2025 offseason
A snapshot of the Top 10 prospects in the Diamondbacks organization entering the 2024-25 offseason.
With the Arizona Fall League wrapped up, it’s time to redo the rankings as the Substack reaches offseason mode. I’ve currently ranked 50 prospects on my list, in which the bottom 40 will remain closed to the public until February. With the chaos of the offseason, which also includes the next international class signings to be announced on January 15th, it won’t be a very deep list. However, this is the section of the prospect list that should see much turnover unless the organization really pulls a big-time prospect out of nowhere.
Without further ado, let’s drop the Top 10 prospects in the Diamondbacks system entering the offseason with a brief scouting report on each player.
No. 1 - SS Jordan Lawlar
Hit 50, Power 50, Run 60, Field 55, Arm 50, Overall 55
Lawlar didn’t get the chance to play much in 2024, as injuries limited him to just 12 games with Triple-A Reno. With it being a lost season, the situation doesn’t change much for the 22-year-old shortstop. He will spend the season in the minor leagues until an opportunity presents himself to play every day at the major league level once again.
Lawlar projects as a bottom-of-the-order bat vs. righties and a top-of-the-order bat vs. lefties who can get on base at a very solid clip and is a threat to steal 30-40 bags a year. Defensively he has good range and has fluid-like athleticism, allowing him to make all the off-platform throws needed for a shortstop despite an average arm. He’s a slight upgrade over Geraldo Perdomo, one of the steadiest defender in the game right now, once he gets his feet underneath him.
The organization doesn’t have anyone who will push him off short in their minor league system, but they could look to get him reps at third base in case Eugenio Suárez suffers an injury. Center field could be a potential avenue to get his bat in the lineup, as he has all the physical tools necessary to make a successful transition.
Lawlar still has two options left, so there’s plenty of time as the D-backs lack a capable shortstop defender above A-ball right now that can bring anywhere close to the same offensive upside. He has the potential to be a solid all-around shortstop, but he is more likely to end up as an above-average regular rather than a star talent.
No. 2 - 1B/3B Gino Groover
Hit 60, Power 55, Run 40, Field 45, Arm 45, Overall 50
No player has a better feel for the barrel in the organization than Groover. With minimal effort in the box, he easily cranks impressive exit velocities. After hitting 10 home runs in 64 games between High-A and Double-A, the power didn’t show up in the batted ball data in the Fall League. While he put up strong exit velocity data, a lot of his hard-hit balls came as low-launch line drives and ground balls.
Defensively, the actions look slow and labored at both third and first base. It may be due to the fact it’s a long season and he’s been working since February, but from what I’ve seen he has a slow release on an average arm and didn’t get the chance to see if he could make the off-platform throws necessary for a third baseman. It’s much more likely he ends up playing first base in the long term, provided the organization can improve the footwork and actions with more reps.
No. 3 - 2B/3B Tommy Troy
Hit 50, Power 50, Run 50, Field 50, Arm 50, Overall 50
No player did more to raise his stock in the Arizona Fall League than Tommy Troy, who hit .310 with three home runs, 9 stolen bases, and a .929 OPS. It was the type of performance that was encouraging after the former first rounder struggled with injuries and a subpar performance in High-A in 2024.
His swing is level with high fastballs, with the approach to attack them to right-center and play off that. Most of his damage is gap-to-gap, although he’ll crush breaking/offspeed mistakes in the strike zone to his pull field. His actions are a bit slow to stick at shortstop but he has average range as a middle infielder, and certainly enough if needed to play third. A strong 2025 season could earn him a cup of coffee with the club, and 2026 being his first full year.
Troy projects as an everyday second baseman, although more as an average to above-average regular (2-3 WAR) who will likely replace Ketel Marte defensively in a couple of years when he ages out of the position. He’s a natural at the position, although he played third base his draft year at Stanford and shortstop for most of 2024. The needs at the major league level could force him over to third as a stopgap option as well, as the position lacks talent close to the major leagues.
No. 4 - OF Slade Caldwell
Hit 60, Power 50, Run 60, Field 55, Arm 45, Overall 45+
Caldwell fits the D-backs preferred mold of outfielders, standing at 5’9” but constantly impacts the ball. While Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas have a more slender and lean build, there’s more muscle in the lower half for the team’s top selection in the 2024 draft. He’ll get his first full look at pro ball, likely an assignment to Low-A Visalia to begin the year.
Long-term, it’s more likely that Caldwell ends up in a corner, but there is still a solid possibility he ends up in center with Carroll entrenched in right field for the next 6 years. He profiles as a top of the order hitter with 15-20 home run power and 40 stolen base potential.
No. 5 - OF Ryan Waldschmidt
Hit 55, Power 55, Run 50, Field 50, Arm 45, Overall 45+
Waldschmidt is a left field only fit as an outfielder, but he has the tools and bat necessary to stick there. He really broke out his junior year at Kentucky with a .333/.469/.610 slash with 14 home runs and 25 stolen bases, rocketing right up to Arizona’s second pick at 31. Another bit of irony after the fact is the team that drafted Paul Goldschmidt drafted Waldschmidt 15 years later.
Waldschmidt profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat with excellent plate discipline, drawing more than his fair share of walks, with a good amount of slug. He didn’t get much challenge in Low-A, which is unsurprising for an elite college performer, as he easily capitalized on poor control with 15 walks in 14 games. A move to High-A and the challenging hitting environment of Ron Tonkin Field, where the air is thick and the wind is often blowing in as Groover described in Fall League, should be more fitting for his development.
There’s a good chance he finishes the year in Double-A if he stays healthy and he should be on the fast track to the major leagues. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in Phoenix by August 2026.
No. 6 - OF Druw Jones
Hit 45, Power 50, Run 70, Field 80, Arm 70, Overall 45+
Druw Jones is the most difficult prospect evaluation in the D-backs system. He has such a lofty ceiling, with the upside of Gold Glove defense in center field with 20-25 home run power, but there’s also the possibility he never gets there. Following an injury-plagued 2023 season, he played 109 games with Visalia and put up a .275/.409/.405 slash (125 wRC+).
While the surface numbers are encouraging and still worth a promotion to High-A next year, there are some scary under-the-hood metrics. The .275 average is boosted by a .402 BABIP, a number that is certain to go down as the quality of defense goes up at each level. He has a great walk rate of 18.0% but how much of it is a function of the pitcher skill level in Low-A and how much is his own plate discipline? At the same time, he has an elevated strikeout rate of 28.0%. Swing-and-miss was always a concern with Jones, even going into the 2022 draft.
For him to remain a Top 10 prospect, he’s going to have to prove that 2024 was not a fluke and he’ll have to continue to reduce the strikeouts without completely impacting his plate discipline. There are a wide range of outcomes, but he can break into the major leagues as a glove-first player in center if necessary and hope the bat continues to improve.
No. 7 - OF Adriel Radney
Hit 50, Power 55, Run 60, Field 50, Arm 50, Overall 45+
Radney was the D-backs top international free agent signing in 2024. More projection than anything else for the 17-year-old outfielder, he has a long way to go to reach the big leagues. While he projects for above-average power in the future, he only had five extra-base hits in 130 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League. He still had fairly solid strikeout and walk rates, sitting at a 25/14 ratio.
As he gets older and more familiar with how he’s being pitched, there should be more of his natural talent coming out. I’m not sure if he’ll get an opportunity in the states in 2025 or start again in the DSL.
No. 8 - 2B Demetrio Crisantes
Hit 55, Power 50, Run 45, Field 50, Arm 45, Overall 45+
The Nogales, Arizona native is the biggest breakout prospect in the D-backs system in 2024, hitting .333 with six home runs for Low-A Visalia. On a roster with three Top 30 prospects on the field, Crisantes ended up standing out the most with a 145 wRC+ in 63 games.
The impressive part is not only did he hit well, but also drew plenty of walks with a 12.9% walk rate compared to a 15.9% strikeout rate. More remains to be seen if the walk rate is a function of the competition he’s facing. A longer look at High-A Hillsboro, the one extreme pitcher-friendly environment in the system, may be a better determinant on the legitimacy of his plate discipline. If it is indeed the case, then the question will be the long-term defensive fit.
Troy is likely the second baseman in waiting after Ketel Marte ages out of the position in a couple of years. However, the needs of the major league roster could create an opening for Crisantes to stake a claim at 2B. If not, he is a candidate to be a left field or DH.
No. 9 - 2B Jansel Luis
Hit 50, Power 45, Run 50, Field 50, Arm 50, Overall 45+
Luis is a projectable, switch-hitting middle infielder with the ability to drive the ball. However, his numbers in Visalia were merely okay in 2024, with a .265/.337/.414 slash (101 wRC+). He is an aggressive hitter who can just get the bat on any pitch in the strike zone, but has a tendency to chase.
With Visalia, he split time between second (25 starts), third (23), and short (47). He seems like one of many logical candidates to get a longer look at third base to see if he could be a starter there. If Arizona is able to fill the gap between now and his likely ETA of 2027, Luis could become a high-usage utility infielder with starts at the three positions.
No. 9 - RHP Cristian Mena
Fastball 55, Curveball 45, Slider 55, Changeup 50, Command 45, Overall 45
Mena was acquired just before the start of Spring Training for Dominic Fletcher. Having made it as far as Triple-A in his Age 20 season, it was enough intrigue to pull the trigger on the deal. He pitched to a respectable 4.61 ERA over 19 starts, with a 102/46 strikeout to walk ratio.
That earned him a spot start with the D-backs on July 3rd. It was about as tough a venue to make any potential debut, facing the eventual World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers in their ballpark. After surrendering four runs four batters into the game, he rebounded with zeros in the second and third inning thanks to a key double play turned by Jake McCarthy. Arizona came back to win that game 9-6.
Mena features a mid-90s fastball, a hard and sharp curveball in the mid 80s, a slider that registered as a sweeper according to Statcast, and a very firm changeup around 88-90 MPH. He is by definition a power pitcher. However, there’s still a lot of room for the 22-year-old to grow when it comes to command.
Not too long after he was sent back down to Reno, he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. The injury did not require surgery, although there’s no update on his condition. It’s likely he’ll be ready to go in spring. Given how crowded the rotation is right now, he’s probably 7th or 8th on the organization’s depth chart to begin the year. Mena profiles as a middle of the rotation starter if this final year of development goes well.