D-backs shock the world with Corbin Burnes signing

The Diamondbacks have agreed to a six-year deal, with a 2027 opt-out, with Corbin Burnes, the top remaining starter on the market.

The Corbin Burnes sweepstakes are finally over and a surprise team has landed the ace pitcher. MLB Insider Jon Heyman, who is also very close to super agent Scott Boras, reports that the Arizona Diamondbacks have agreed to a six-year deal with Burnes. The deal carries a maximum guarantee of $210 million with an opt-out after the 2026 season.

As a revenue-sharing club, the D-backs will forfeit their third-highest selection (No. 57) and the Baltimore Orioles will receive the No. 30 selection. Arizona will still have their two first round picks, their original selection at No. 18 and No. 29 for losing Christian Walker to the Houston Astros. They no longer have their two second round selections, the other one going to Cleveland in the Josh Naylor trade.

Bob Nightengale from USA Today reported that the San Francisco Giants and the Toronto Blue Jays offered more in terms of years and dollars. However, the Diamondbacks’ advantage of lower state income taxes, the ability to live year-round in his Scottsdale home, and the option of cashing in on the open market two years from now have won out.

The $210 million would be the largest contract in franchise history, should Burnes elect to not opt out after the 2026 season. The best case scenario for the D-backs may be he pitches like an ace for two seasons and triggers the opt-out.

Arms Race in the National League West

With the Los Angeles Dodgers building a super rotation with the addition of Blake Snell and Shohei Ohtani, it was imperative that the D-backs assemble a strong enough rotation to compete in a short series. While the Dodgers are the vastly superior team over a 162-game season, we saw in 2023 that team is beatable at the right time.

The projected rotation for Arizona presents as the following:

1. RHP Corbin Burnes

2. RHP Zac Gallen

3. RHP Merrill Kelly

4. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

5. RHP Brandon Pfaadt

2024 breakout starter Ryne Nelson is on the outside looking in with this rotation spot, so there will likely be a trade. The team has already put Jordan Montgomery on the market and have gotten little interest back. Putting a pitcher like Gallen, Pfaadt, or Nelson could actually generate a good return to address long-term needs.

How Burnes slots into the Diamondbacks rotation

Burnes’ strikeout rate has declined since his Cy Young season in 2021, but he still has a strong pitching profile across the board. His 23.1% rate in 2024 is slightly better than the league average, but his ability to generate whiffs and weak contact is still very strong. He ranks in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, 89th percentile in chase rate, 74th percentile in whiff rate, and 70th percentile in barrel rate.

Here’s a look at his Statcast profile, grabbed from his Baseball Savant page.

Corbin Burnes Statcast data and percentile rankings, 2024 season.

While Burnes isn’t necessarily dominant with the strikeouts, he has a high ground ball rate and eats up a lot of innings. He’s averaged 189 innings over the past four seasons due to his ability to pitch to contact early in the count and get early outs. While the 200-inning ace is going extinct in the current era of baseball, Burnes is one of the few pitchers capable of getting there. With him, Gallen, and Kelly at the top of the rotation, they expect the rotation to carry the load.

The rotation was the team’s Achilles heel in 2024, with much of it either injured or ineffective. While they were able to overcome those problems in the aggregate thanks to sporting the best offense in baseball, they caused enough trouble to cause them to narrowly miss out on the postseason. Since then, the entire coaching staff has been overhauled on the pitching side.

Further Reading

Michael McDermott is a Contributor to FanSided’s MLB coverage for Call to the Pen, Venom Strikes, Friars on Base, and Dodgers Way. He has written about the Diamondbacks since the 2015 season and has covered more than 50 games on-site at Chase Field.