D-backs must leverage rotation surplus to strengthen lineup long-term
With too many starters on the roster and pressing needs to address, the Diamondbacks should explore a trade to bolster their lineup for 2025.
The Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world by landing Corbin Burnes on a six-year deal. With the addition of Burnes, Arizona seven starters to fill five rotation spots. Since none of those seven pitchers have any business being in the bullpen or Triple-A to stay stretched out, expect trades on the horizon.
In addition to trying to get out of Montgomery’s contract, they will need to make another move. The three pitchers that teams will be asking for are Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson.
The D-backs have one of two options:
Deal Zac Gallen, a Top 10 National League starter, to recoup value ahead of his free agency next season.
Deal Nelson or Pfaadt to sacrifice long-term rotation depth to fill another hole on the roster
It’s not an easy choice to make but it could very well decide the future direction of the franchise. Here’s what could be in play depending on which starter the team ultimately deals in the coming months.
Zac Gallen: Short-term pain, long-term gain?
Where Gallen gets dealt will likely determine how the team feels about his value. Most likely they’ll want him in the American League, where he can do the least damage to their 2025 postseason chances. Teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, and the Houston Astros make the most sense to move him to.
The likely framework for a deal will be similar to what the Brewers got for one season of Burnes. That deal netted Milwaukee a major league-ready prospect to replace Willy Adames in Joey Ortiz and a post-hype prospect who throws hard in DL Hall. General manager Mike Hazen has excelled in this type of trade in the past, one of them involving Gallen.
The Orioles make the most sense as a trade target. A hypothetical deal surrounding Ryan Mountcastle and Chayce McDermott would make a lot of sense. Mountcastle would play first base, thus moving Josh Naylor to a full-time DH role, and is under control through the 2026 season. McDermott gives the D-backs optionable rotation depth and should spend much of the year with Triple-A Reno until needed.
After the Orioles, the Astros best match up for what Arizona could look for. The downside is they lack the pieces that can immediately contribute to the D-backs like Baltimore could possibly throw at them. However, they do have a match for a long-term third base or first base need plus enough organizational pitching depth to facilitate a potential deal. They may be a better match if Arizona is in “sell mode” in July.
Losing Gallen would certainly impact the team’s postseason chances in 2025, which will mandate a return that can help them immediately. Short of such a return, it is in their best interest to not move him at all. Arizona can still gain a first-round pick if they lose Gallen in free agency after he declines a qualifying offer, provided they don’t end up over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $241 million. As of this writing, the team is at $217 million according to Roster Resource, which sets Burnes at $35 million per year.
Trading Gallen won’t be easy, especially with Dylan Cease also on the market and the San Diego Padres more motivated to move him. Cease is also scheduled for free agency after the 2025 season and could command a comparable contract to what Burnes got.
Pfaadt or Nelson: Long-term pain, short-term gain?
There may not be a deal available that the D-backs like for Gallen, or they prefer to go all-in for 2025. Trading Pfaadt or Nelson hurts the team’s rotation situation beyond the 2025 season, so a deal will need to improve the club for 2025 and beyond in some area.
Both pitchers look like the building blocks of the next core of players. Nelson and Pfaadt both took major steps forward, even though their season numbers might not necessarily reflect their progress. Nelson was finally able to develop a usable cutter, which plays well off his upper-90s fastball, to go on a strong two-month run. Pfaadt showed the ability to eat innings despite the occasional lapse that often resulted in a quick crooked number. Both pitchers are minor tweaks away from becoming reliable mid-rotation starters.
Any trade involving those two would likely have to be headlined by a controllable middle of the order bat and either bullpen help or an MLB-ready starting pitching prospect. Triston Casas or Brent Rooker make the most sense if they’re looking for an impact power bat in the middle of their lineup. Rooker is a pure DH an emergency outfielder who will be challenged in the big outfield in Chase Field while Casas is limited to first base defensively but with an extra year of control.
Another option would be the versatile defender Brendan Donovan, an on-base machine who can play every position on the infield and both corner outfield spots. If they can’t improve the middle of their lineup, they should aim to improve the top or bottom. However, the availability of such players is tricky and will require the right player to get a team to part with.
This is the type of trade where Hazen has truly excelled at in his tenure with the D-backs. The first was in his first offseason at the helm, acquiring Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker from the Seattle Mariners for Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Zac Curtis. Another one came after the 2022 season, acquiring Gold Glove catcher Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. from the Blue Jays for Daulton Varsho. Those two trades contributed to the team’s success in 2023, with Marte, Moreno, and Gurriel all expected to play major roles in 2025.
Given his success at navigating this type of deal, history could very well repeat itself in the coming months.
Michael McDermott is a Contributor to FanSided’s MLB coverage for Call to the Pen, Venom Strikes, Friars on Base, and Dodgers Way. He has written about the Diamondbacks since the 2015 season and has covered more than 50 games on-site at Chase Field.