Could the Diamondbacks try to sell high on Jake McCarthy?

Following a strong 2024 campaign, the Diamondbacks could look to trade one of their starting outfielders to help bolster the roster.

The Diamondbacks face an interesting situation with their outfield mix. Left and right field are settled, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll expected to be the primary starters, but the team has an issue in center field. Jake McCarthy finished the year as the starter and should be the frontrunner in the spring but at the same time, he could turn into a big trade chip to address bigger needs on the roster.

It’s for that very same reason that the D-backs are getting calls about the availability of their outfielders.

“We’ll see,” Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen told The Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro at the GM Meetings in November. “I’m still skeptical that a trade is going to happen, but we’ve gotten a lot of calls. There’s not many center fielders out there is what I’m gathering.”

Due to a possible scarcity of available center fielders on the market this offseason, Hazen and the D-backs hold all the leverage in trade decisions involving McCarthy. While the organization’s top decision maker threw cold water on the possibility of a deal, it wouldn’t be too surprising if he tries to leverage that interest in trying to address bigger needs on the roster. They have potential holes to address at first base, DH, and the bullpen if they want to sell high. Any trade offer that doesn’t give the D-backs a controllable player at either first or a high-leverage arm is going to cause Hazen to change the subject and hang up the phone.

McCarthy has been up and down in his career but is coming off another solid year in 2024. In a career-high 142 games, he managed a .285/.349/.400 slash line (109 OPS+) with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and 1.7 bWAR. Originally on the roster as a fourth outfielder, he got the opportunity to play consistently once Alek Thomas suffered a hamstring injury in the 4th game of the season and never looked back. By the end of the season, the team decided the best way to get McCarthy in the lineup was to play every day in center.

There is a clear path for McCarthy to play not only in the short-term, but also the long-term. While Gurriel is under control through 2025, and possibly 2026 if he doesn’t opt out after the season, the team will need a bridge between him and 2024 first rounder Ryan Waldschmidt, who could reach the major leagues at the end of the 2026 season. Another factor to consider has been Thomas’ inability to hit at the major league level, which deserves its own separate breakdown. Thomas has a career .226/.273/.359 triple slash (73 OPS+) in 916 plate appearances, which has eaten into his value as a strong defensive center fielder. While McCarthy isn’t going to be getting any votes for a Gold Glove award, he provides a more consistent presence at the dish on a nightly basis.

While he isn’t necessarily a star, what he brings on a nightly basis wins games. His strengths include spraying the ball from line to line and using his plus-plus speed (98th percentile in sprint speed) to distract pitchers. Most of his hits are ground balls through the hole at short and soft line drives to the outfield. He’ll turn on elevated fastballs in hitter-friendly counts for the occasional home run, but it’s clear he understands what his strengths are and plays to it.

Defensively, he’s about close to average in center. He has above-average range (+6 outs above average) in the outfield but a weak throwing arm subtracted from that value. The gap between his 1.7 bWAR and 3.0 fWAR came down to his defense, with Baseball-Reference giving him a -3 run value while Statcast has him at +6. The D-backs’ proprietary analytics are much closer to what Baseball Savant publishes, so they’re more than comfortable keeping him in center field.

With his current outlook, the D-backs are not in a position where they need to make a move. Due to the easy fit in the starting lineup, the lack of an established alternative in the organization, Hazen has no incentive to deal McCarthy for anything less than the ideal return. Instead, the question should be on what the organization should do with Alek Thomas, who has failed to live up to his top prospect status despite his heroics in the 2023 postseason.

While a deal may never unfold during the offseason, it would also be foolish to assume that is the end-all, be-all of such discussions, as past behavior can often predict future behavior. Hazen is no stranger to such deals in his tenure as the D-backs GM. He executed such deals by selling high on players such as Jean Segura, Jazz Chisholm, and Daulton Varsho in exchange for Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen, and Gabriel Moreno. The three players he got back are arguably the three most important to the team’s potential success in the past two seasons. Given Hazen’s ability to sell high very well, he may pull off another such deal if the right one comes along.

Michael McDermott has been writing about the Arizona Diamondbacks, and their minor league system, for 9 seasons for AZ Snake Pit, Diamondbacks on SI, and Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X at x.com/michaelmcdmlb or at Bluesky.